I have had the privilege of hearing Clem Sunter speak in the 1980s about scenario planning and on a number of occasions since then. Scenarios are potential future (5-10 years) outcomes and in most cases they suggest a range of possible outcomes. Scenarios, once agreed, also signal strategic options that could be considered to, as far as possible, achieve the preferred scenario.
Yesterday (about 30 years later) at the SAIFM 2016 summit he again inspired me regarding the value of scenario planning as a way coming to grips with future possibilities.
While the future is always uncertain, there is in almost all cases a high road and a low road scenario.
And while I don’t subscribe to blind positivity, I do think that by embracing optimism and hope as core values and focusing energy and strategic thinking on the ‘high road’ can be very energising and contagious.
Clem advised that to develop sound scenarios you need to identify the big things (he calls them flags) that could or will change the future. Some of the big things he spoke about were, climate change [its getting hotter], ageing populations [we are getting older].
Not sure where to start? Try using the PESTEL framework to kick-start your scenario planning conversation.
If this has peaked your interest and you want to read more, please go to http://www.mindofafox.com/site/home.
If you want to have a conversation about scenarios, please email me at john@arnesenandassociates.co.za
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